First things first: Groundhogs are lousy weather predictors
As the myth of Groundhog Day goes, if a groundhog sees its shadow on February 2, winter will last another six weeks. And while Punxsutawney Phil’s handlers maintain 100 percent accuracy in his seasonal predictions, the numbers tell a different story. Stormfax calculated that Phil has seen a 39 percent forecasting success rate since 1887. According to a Canadian groundhog study, this is just 2 percent higher than the average success rate of 37 percent (the most accurate hog-nosticators in their study residing in Yellowknife, Canada, with a 50 percent accuracy). In other words, a gambling man would be better off flipping a coin.
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